Overview
According to updated projections from the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Paraguay is expected to maintain one of the highest growth rates in the region throughout 2025.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators (Forecast 2025)
| Indicator | Estimated Value | Trend / Comment |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (real) | 4.3 – 5.0 % | rising, above regional average |
| Inflation (annual avg.) | 3.5 % | within target range |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.5 % | slightly decreasing |
| GDP per Capita (nominal) | 7,500 – 7,800 USD | moderate increase |
| Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio | 34 % | stable, below regional peers |
| Fiscal Deficit | -1.2 % of GDP | under control |
| Current Account Balance | +1.0 % of GDP | surplus |
| Foreign Reserves | ~10.5 billion USD | record high |
| Exchange Rate (PYG/USD) | 7,300 – 7,400 | stable |
| Central Bank Policy Rate | 6.0 % | neutral to easing |
| Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) | +6 – 8 % YoY | strong inflow |
| Exports (total) | +5 % | led by agri & energy |
| Imports (total) | +4 % | domestic demand rising |
| Industrial Output | +3.8 % | solid expansion |
| Construction Sector | +9 % | infrastructure-driven |
| Energy Exports | +7 % | record Itaipú & Yacyretá output |
| Retail Activity Index | +4.5 % | robust consumer spending |
(Sources: MEF, BCP, IMF, ECLAC, World Bank – 2025 projections)
Regional Comparison 2025
| Country | GDP Growth (Forecast) | Inflation | Debt-to-GDP | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 4.3 – 5.0 % | 3 – 4 % | 34 % | outperforming region |
| Uruguay | 3.2 % | 4.5 % | 55 % | solid, higher costs |
| Panama | 4.5 % | 2.8 % | 58 % | similar growth path |
| Peru | 2.7 % | 3.0 % | 36 % | moderate expansion |
| Chile | 2.2 % | 3.5 % | 38 % | recovering slowly |
| Brazil | 1.8 % | 4.2 % | 75 % | structurally weak |
| Argentina | 0.5 % | 80 %+ | 95 % | recession risk |
(Sources: ECLAC, IMF, national statistics – 2025 estimates)
Financial and Monetary Outlook
- Currency Stability: The guaraní remains steady due to consistent monetary policy and strong reserves.
- Interest Rates: Following controlled inflation in 2024, the Central Bank has room for gradual rate cuts to stimulate investment.
- Credit Expansion: Business loans grew by over 8%, especially in the construction and industrial sectors.
- Fiscal Policy: Paraguay continues to operate with one of Latin America’s lowest fiscal deficits, giving it space to finance infrastructure and development programs without jeopardizing stability.
Trade and Export Performance
| Sector / Product Group | Change 2025 (approx.) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Soy & Derivatives | +6 % | strong harvest and stable prices |
| Beef & Processed Foods | +8 % | high demand in Asia & Middle East |
| Hydroelectric Energy (Itaipú/Yacyretá) | +7 % | record output due to favorable conditions |
| Chemicals & Plastics | +5 % | growing local manufacturing |
| Machinery & Vehicles (imports) | +4 % | driven by construction demand |
Investment and Sectoral Dynamics
- Private Investment: +10 % growth, particularly in energy, logistics, and services.
- Public Investment: Around 3.2 % of GDP, focusing on road networks, housing, and digital infrastructure.
- FDI Inflows: Expanding steadily led by investors from Brazil, Germany, the U.S., and South Korea.
- High-Growth Sectors: Construction, food processing, renewable energy, finance, and IT services.
Overall Assessment
Paraguay enters 2025 as one of the most resilient and fastest growing economies in Latin America.
Its balanced combination of macroeconomic discipline, energy wealth, industrial diversification, and political predictability positions it as a safe haven for investors seeking growth in a volatile region.
With GDP expansion above 4%, controlled inflation, and a sustainable fiscal framework, Paraguay is not only keeping pace it’s setting the standard for economic management in South America.